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Gold is glittering, bonds are rating low. « If, Then… Signals
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Gold is glittering, bonds are rating low.

Are a couple of longer-term trends about to change?

[pay]Aug Gold met its long-standing 1284.50 target last week, and reacted up sharply to test the 1296.00 buy signal. Dec Gold retraced back down to 1283.30. But for 30 cents, that expended literally as much selling pressure as was possible without gaining any traction for the effort.

Gold is sharply higher this morning, gapping up to and through 1296.00 then extending to test 1308.00. Leaving the gap outstanding isn’t optimal to forming a durable bottom, but that doesn’t prevent a productive rally. Closing above 1313.00 would confirm.

Meanwhile, the long bond is finally testing a fresh high at 138-06. This “unfinished business above” had undermined the interim drop to 136-14, which was substantial but never confirmed. That was a different version of expending a lot of selling pressure without gaining traction for the effort.

Yesterday’s high held a test of 138-16 resistance. It was touched intraday but not recovered through the close, which undermined buyers. Gapping up is the only way to extend higher immediately, and today’s open did gap up — to big resistance, creating “unfinished business below” to fill the gap back to yesterday’s close under 138-16. Not closing above 138-08 would make that gap likely to fill sooner rather than later.

I described the patterns during this morning’s Market Tour… Click here for its recording.

[/pay]

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